Bryant leads West to easy All-Star game win

Basketball Betting Lines

02/19/2007 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant scored 31 points, dished out six assists and had six steals to lead the West to an easy 153-132 win over the East in the 56th annual All-Star Game at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Bryant was named the MVP of the contest for leading a West team that registered an All-Star game record 52 assists and fell just two points short of its own All-Star game record for points -- 155 set in 2003.

Amare Stoudemire added 29 points and nine rebounds for the West, who snapped a two-game skid in the event. Carmelo Anthony chipped in with 20 points and nine boards, while Shawn Marion finished with 18 points and eight rebounds.

"We wanted to come out and play pretty well," said Bryant. "We lost the last two games and wanted to get back in the win column. We had a blast. If you had a shot you took it, otherwise you penetrated and dished it."

LeBron James -- who was the MVP in last year's game -- netted 28 points, six rebounds and six assists for the East. Dwight Howard was a force inside in his All-Star debut with 20 points and a game-high 12 boards, while Joe Johnson had 12 points.

The opening quarter featured some sloppy play early but the West heated up quickly. Anthony's fade away jumper from the right corner gave them a 10-point advantage, 35-25, with just over a minute to go in the stanza.

Less than 30 seconds later, Vince Carter provided a spark for the East and electrified the crowd with a slam off a beautiful spin move but the West still managed to keep a 39-31 advantage after the opening 12 minutes.

Carter continued to provide a show for the fans early in the second quarter, taking a Chauncey Billups feed off the glass and depositing another slam. But, it was the West establishing control in the frame. Dirk Nowitzki's three, with 9:44 remaining before the half, made it a 51-35 game.

The West continued to dominate the next few minutes. A 7-0 run, featuring back-to-back layups by Nowitzki and Marion and a McGrady triple, gave the West its first 20-point cushion, 59-39, with a little over seven minutes to go in the second

The teams then traded baskets for the rest of the half and the West took a 79-59 edge into the locker room. Bryant led the West with 17 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while James paced the East with 16 points and shot 6-of-10 from the floor.

The West continued to run away early in the third quarter. Ray Allen's three, with 4:08 left in the frame, gave the West a commanding 108-76 advantage.

Nowitzki then capped the scoring in the frame with a jumper to make it 119-88 heading into the final frame.

The East failed to make any kind of serious run in the fourth quarter. A Dwyane Wade jumper cut the deficit to 25, 129-104, with 7:53 left in the game but Bryant stemmed any momentum by draining a three 17 seconds later.

The Lakers' star then got loose for a reverse dunk on the baseline and Marion followed that with another reverse jam to extend the West's advantage to 136-106 with 6:51 on the clock.

The West coasted to the finish line from there. Bryant capped his MVP performance with a spinning slam with 30 seconds left.

Game Notes

This was the first All-Star game held outside an NBA franchise city...Bryant captured his second All-Star MVP award. His first was in his hometown of Philadelphia during the 2002 game...Wade's follow shot in the lane with 16.6 seconds remaining rallied the East past the West, 122-120, at Houston's Toyota Center in last year's game...The East still holds a commanding 35-21 advantage in the all-time series...New Jersey guard Jason Kidd was originally named as a reserve to the East squad, however but was sidelined with a back injury and did not play in the contest. Meanwhile, the Western Conference was without ailing center Yao Ming and guards Steve Nash of the Suns and Denver's Allen Iverson...Las Vegas legend Wayne Newton entertained the crowd before the game while the city's nine time entertainer of the year Andy Gans sang the National Anthem...Six-time Grammy winner Toni Braxton and Christina Aguilera headlined the halftime show.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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