Capuano picks up win as Brewers down Pirates

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rickie Weeks hit a two-run homer and Chris Capuano picked up his first win in over three years, as the Milwaukee Brewers earned a 3-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of a four-game series at PNC Park.

Prince Fielder also homered for Milwaukee, which has won six of its last eight overall despite being held to only three hits. The Brewers have now won five straight against the Pirates.

Capuano (1-1), who returned to the mound on June 3 after undergoing dual Tommy John surgeries, hadn't won a game since May 7, 2007. In this one, the left- hander allowed one run on three hits, walked one and struck out four in throwing only 65 pitches over five innings. John Axford threw a scoreless ninth to register his 12th save of the season.

Ronny Cedeno had a pair of hits, including a run-scoring triple for the Pirates, who had taken two of three games versus Houston over the weekend. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of its last 10.

Jeff Karstens (2-5) was saddled with the loss despite throwing six solid innings. The righty allowed three runs on as many hits, struck out six and did not issue a walk.

Pittsburgh appeared to have something going in the bottom of the ninth, trailing 3-1. Axford came on and gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, then walked Pedro Alvarez. However, the right-hander struck out the next two batters before retiring Cedeno on a groundout to second that sealed the win.

Karstens pitched two perfect innings before rain halted play for 50 minutes prior to the bottom of the second. When play continued the Pirates right- hander picked up where he left off by retiring the next six batters before Fielder broke the string with a homer to left leading off the fifth.

Alvarez drew a leadoff walk in the home half and crossed the plate on Cedeno's two-out triple to center that evened things. Karstens lined out to third to end the inning.

Milwaukee then regained the lead in the sixth. Carlos Gomez reached with a one-out, pinch-hit bunt single and Weeks followed by crushing a fastball into the left-field seats for a 3-1 game.

Pittsburgh stranded a pair of runners in the seventh and Kameron Loe, who retired the final batter in the inning, set the Pirates down in order in the eighth.

Game Notes

Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen sat out the game after suffering a right shoulder injury in Sunday's win versus Houston and is listed as day-to- day...Karstens fell to 0-3 in nine career games -- six starts -- against Milwaukee...Pittsburgh finished 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded seven.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.