Gaming: Can the WAC maintain its ATS Superiority?

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last season was quite a turnaround for the Western Athletic Conference, as the league's nine teams covered 21 of their 36 non-conference games (with two pushes) for an impressive 61% winning percentage.

This straight off the heels of a disastrous 13-22 mark in '08, a season in which the league finished 5-14 against the spread against Bowl Championship Series competition. This past year was the first since 2004 that the WAC ended a season above the .500 mark (8-7) versus BCS schools.

The question now becomes: Can the league continue its success, or will it falter with increased expectations? I fully expect the former to hold true, especially since only one team (Louisiana Tech) returns fewer starters than a season ago. In addition, the WAC is the only conference that returns every single starting quarterback.

As for betting within the league, favorites are only 55-52-1 over the last three years so it's difficult to follow specific trends on a weekly basis. However, Boise State has completed three straight years of winning records as a conference favorite with a combined ATS total of 15-8. Keep in mind, though, that 2010 will be the Broncos' final season in the WAC so the other eight squads might come at them with more intensity than in previous years.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted straight-up overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

9) SAN JOSE STATE - The Spartans were an abysmal 1-9-1 ATS last season. They are 3-12-1 ATS in conference play the last two years.

Offense - San Jose State's offensive production has gone backwards each of the last four years, culminating with a 13.8 points per game average last season. The same cast of characters returns in 2010 along with the added pressure of learning new schemes. I don't expect much improvement, especially with trips to Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah to start the FBS schedule.

Defense - After giving up 21.6 ppg two years ago, the defense allowed 34.5 last year, the first season since '05 the unit was gashed for more than 30 ppg. In addition, only one team in the country allowed more rushing yards per game and that was 0-12 Eastern Michigan. Even with eight starters back, this is one of the worst defenses in the nation.

Prediction - There's only one way to go after a 1-9-1 ATS record so look for a few more covers, particularly in conference play. (3-9, 1-7)

8) NEW MEXICO STATE - The Aggies went 5-6-1 ATS last year but finished up with a 3-1 mark in their last four games. They are 2-7 ATS as home underdogs the last two seasons.

Offense - New Mexico State's offense was even worse than San Jose State's, finishing dead last nationally in scoring at an 11.5 ppg clip. However, there were signs of progress as the Aggies averaged 4.2 yards per carry in league play, up from 1.1 the season before. New offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar will rev up the passing game so look for the team to average close to 20 ppg in 2010.

Defense - The Aggies came into last year without their top six tacklers, and it showed as opposing rushers picked up 5.6 ypc. This season, six of the top eight tacklers return. Expect the defense to allow fewer than 30 ppg for the first time since '03.

Prediction - New Mexico State has not had a winning ATS record since '04, but that could change this season. (4-8, 2-6)

7) IDAHO - The Vandals were 7-5-1 ATS in '09 but went 0-5-1 over the final six games. They are 15-7-2 to the over since the start of the '08 season.

Offense - Only Auburn and Arkansas had a higher increase in scoring than Idaho last year. However, don't be shocked if the Vandals' 32.7 ppg mark takes a huge hit as the offense returns only four starters. In addition, the o-line brings back fewer than 20 career starts.

Defense - Despite reaching the postseason, the defense ranked dead last in the league in scoring, allowing 36 ppg. The Vandals were also 119th nationally in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Ten starters return this year so some improvement is expected. But remember, Idaho has allowed an average of 38 ppg in its five-year WAC history.

Prediction - Last season was the Vandals' first above-.500 ATS campaign since '02. Given that, I anticipate a giant tumble in 2010. (3-9, 2-6)

6) UTAH STATE - The Aggies went 8-3 ATS in '09. They are 16-8 ATS in WAC play and 14-5 as away underdogs the last three years.

Offense - Spring injuries to running back Robert Turbin and receiver Stanley Morrison will have significant ramifications for Utah State's offense. Not only do the Aggies lose their star tailback, but they will now be without five of their top six pass-catchers from a year ago.

Defense - This unit ranked seventh in league play last year in both scoring and total defense. However, 11 of the top 14 tacklers return and the team will now be in the second year of the new system.

Prediction - Quarterback Diondre Borel will not have as many weapons as he had a year ago, so don't expect another 3-0 ATS record in non-conference play. (3-9, 2-6)

5) HAWAII - The Warriors were an even 6-6 ATS last year but were 4-2 over the final six games. They are 3-1 ATS as road favorites the last two years.

Offense - The Warriors ranked seventh in the league in scoring last season, averaging only 23 ppg. Even though they finished first in league play in passing yardage, only Nevada and New Mexico State had lower completion percentages. Furthermore, with 16 fumbles in only 292 rushing attempts, they must do a better job holding onto the football.

Defense - For a unit that returned just one starter, it was an amazing achievement to finish fourth in league play in total defense. This season could be even better as seven starters come back, including the entire secondary.

Prediction - Hawaii will open the season 0-2 ATS with losses to both USC and Army. (6-7, 4-4)

4) NEVADA - The Wolf Pack finished 7-6 ATS last year, but went 4-0 to end the year. Chris Ault's club is an incredible 19-4 as a home favorite over the last six years.

Offense - Nevada was 0-4 SU in games that Colin Kaepernick threw at least 25 passes and 8-1 in the others. With nine starters coming back, expect another phenomenal season, particularly against the rest of the conference.

Defense - The Wolf Pack ranked last in the league in pass defense last year, and the secondary will once again be an area of concern with the loss of both safeties. Until the team figures out how to defend the pass, play the over (10-5 in the last 15 conference games).

Prediction - Nevada's style works well inside the WAC but not against the rest of the country as its 1-8 ATS mark in the last nine out-of-conference games points out. (8-5, 5-3)

3) LOUISIANA TECH - The Bulldogs went 7-4 ATS last year. They are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs the last three years, but 9-28-1 ATS off a SU loss in the last eight.

Offense - With head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin in charge, look for Louisiana Tech to average over 30 ppg for the first time since '01. Four offensive line starters return to an attack that rang up 29 ppg a season ago, and this year's talent level has increased with transfers from both Tennessee and LSU.

Defense - With the coaching change that took place over the winter, it's important to keep in mind that defensive coordinator Tommy Spangler was retained. The defense allowed only 21 touchdowns last year, tying Boise State for the top spot in league play.

Prediction - Go with the over in each of Louisiana Tech's first four FBS games. (7-5, 5-3)

2) FRESNO STATE - The Bulldogs went 6-5-1 ATS in '09, but 1-3 in their final four games. They are just 2-10-1 as home favorites over the last four years.

Offense - Fresno State has always had solid rushing numbers so even with Ryan Mathews off to the NFL, the running game will not suffer as much as people might think. Tough-as-nails quarterback Ryan Colburn was impressive in his first season as the starter completing 61% of his tosses with 19 touchdowns. Look for even better numbers in his senior campaign.

Defense - Opposing league rushers averaged an amazing 6.7 ypc against Fresno State last season. However, that number should drop to below 5.0 if the defense can stay injury free. New defensive coordinator Randy Stewart did a fine job in '07, a year in which the Bulldogs' scoring average dropped a point despite only three returning starters. This year, seven come back.

Prediction - After playing seven road games each of the last two years, the Bulldogs get seven at home in 2010. (10-2, 7-1)

1) BOISE STATE - The Broncos went 8-5 ATS last season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference matchups, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites.

Offense - Despite a shaky spring, Kellen Moore is still one of the top quarterbacks in the game. Throw in nine other returning starters to an offense that averaged over 40 ppg and the sky is the limit for the Broncos.

Defense - Only two starters returned to the front seven last season, causing the rush defense to allow over 4.5 ypc in league play. This year, all seven are back. It's hard to imagine the Broncos defense can improve after giving up just 17 ppg last season, but it could happen since the defense loses just two of 28 lettermen.

Prediction - Boise State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games. Look for another outstanding season in 2010 both SU and ATS, beginning with a win and cover versus Virginia Tech. (12-0, 8-0)