Giants, Marlins ready for clash between scorching teams

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off this evening when the San Francisco Giants welcome the Florida Marlins to town for the start of a four-game series at AT&T Park.

San Francisco has won four straight and 14 of its last 17 to move within three games of the San Diego Padres in the National League West while claiming the Wild Card lead, 1 1/2 games in front of Cincinnati.

Rookie Buster Posey has been the fuel behind the Giants' recent surge, as he enters tonight's tilt riding an 18-game hitting streak, the second-longest in team history behind Willie McCovey's 22-gamer.

Posey continued to roll on Sunday, going 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles and an RBI in the Giants' 3-2, 10-inning win over Arizona to complete a four-game sweep. He also needs one more RBI to move past Jim Ray Hart, who set a team rookie record with 24 RBI in one month in 1964.

"I'm seeing the ball well. That's my approach, try to see the ball and get the barrel on it. Keep it simple," a humble Posey said.

San Francisco may be able to keep rolling tonight, as scheduled starter Barry Zito is a perfect 5-0 lifetime against the Marlins. He beat them earlier in the year by allowing one run in seven innings and has pitched to a 2.15 earned run average in his six starts against Florida.

Zito, who is 8-5 with a 3.45 ERA, suffered a hard-luck loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, as he allowed two runs in 7 1/3 innings of the 2-0 setback.

Florida, meanwhile, sliced into Atlanta's lead in the National League East this weekend by taking two of three from the Braves and has won seven of its last nine to get back to .500. In Sunday's rubber match, Wes Helms hit a run- scoring single in the bottom of the 11th inning, lifting the Marlins to a 5-4 win.

Helms ended with two hits, three RBI, and a run scored for the Marlins, who have not been over .500 since they were 28-27 on June 3.

Chris Volstad, who was recalled from Triple-A New Orleans prior to the game, lasted six frames for Florida in the start, allowing three runs on five hits. Jorge Sosa (2-2) pitched a scoreless two innings of relief to record the win.

Getting the call for the Marlins tonight will be righty Ricky Nolasco, who is 10-7 with a 4.50 ERA. Nolasco improved to 5-1 over his last six starts with a win over Colorado on Wednesday. He gave up two runs and four hits in eight innings of that one, as he moved past A.J. Burnett for second all-time in franchise history with 50 wins.

Nolasco is just 1-2 in three starts against the Giants, despite a 2.05 ERA.

San Francisco swept a three-game set from the Marlins earlier in the year and has won five of the last six meetings in the series.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.