Surging Wizards seek more road success at Union

Soccer Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas City coach Peter Vermes said last week's 2-0 win at the Los Angeles Galaxy was "probably our best 90-minute performance of the whole season," but the surging Wizards still have work to do to qualify for the Major League Soccer playoffs.

Kansas City has four wins and two ties in its last seven matches, earning more than half its 26 points during the run. The Wizards also won at Columbus, 1-0, to open the streak in mid-July, but the expansion Philadelphia Union present a challenge for K.C. on Saturday.

K.C. (7-9-5) visits PPL Park for the second game of a three-game road trip but Philadelphia (5-11-5) has played well recently, earning two draws and a win in its last four MLS matches. The Union also beat Mexico's Guadalajara, 1-0, this week in a friendly.

Kansas City's victories at Los Angeles and Columbus are its only two road wins this season, as six losses and two draws in its other away games have kept the Wizards from moving up the Eastern Conference standings.

Davy Arnaud had a goal and an assist last week in the win over L.A., which has the best record in MLS (Columbus has the second best record), and Galaxy coach Bruce Arena praised K.C. following the game at The Home Depot Center.

"I think that we got outcompeted. All this was about tonight was fighting and scrapping and we lost that fight. I think that was the difference in the game; they played harder," Arena said.

K.C. is fourth in the Eastern Conference, 11 points back of Red Bull New York, who holds the second of two guaranteed playoff berths from the conference. The Wizards are three behind the San Jose Earthquakes for the final playoff spot.

Philadelphia has quietly put together a decent year for an expansion team, and is only nine points behind San Jose with two months remaining in the year. The Union won 2-1 at the New England Revolution last weekend thanks to a stoppage- time goal from Justin Mapp, then followed that with the win over Guadalajara.

Philadelphia has yet to post a shutout in league matches, but the game against the Mexican power proves the Union are capable.

Union rookie Danny Mwanga, who is second on the squad with seven goals, may be carrying a bigger load this weekend with Alejandro Moreno and nine-goal scorer Sebastien Le Toux questionable, but he is confident Philadelphia can win.

"We definitely are looking to win," Mwanga said on the club's website. "We did a pretty good job against New England [and] we're going to look to continue that.

"If we can keep doing what we're doing we think we can get a good result this Saturday against Kansas City."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.